Any such assertion must rest on an understanding that critical U.S. national interests, including both economic and security interests, are at stake and at risk. Thanks to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), American power projection capabilities will be regularly present in the Philippines for the first time since the early 1990s. Enduring U.S. interestsfreedom of navigation and overflight, support for the rules-based international order, and the peaceful resolution of disputesare at risk in the region. China has seized the initiative in the South China Sea, however, and the United States needs to revamp its strategy to reverse current trends and escape the trap of reactive and ineffectual policymaking. China is working hard to bring under its control the water, islands, rocks and reefs that sit within its imaginary nine-dash line. Given these advantages, Washington can afford to focus on the long game in Asia, confident that Chinese adventurism is likely to push many states to turn to the United States for support. From the report. Nevertheless, for America, this new world will be profoundly discomfiting and even alien. Southeast Asia will inevitably be rendered subordinate and compliant to Chinas will. Beijing may not find it quite as easy to run roughshod over Hanoi in the coming years. The third will assess the policies/strategies currently employed by the United States in this arena as well as other plausible options. The Obama administration has made modest gains in this regard, but it will be up for to the next president to seize that opportunity and ensure that Southeast Asias future is prosperous, peaceful and free. Seventh Fleet transits regularly between the Pacific and Indian Oceans (including the Bay of Bengal). This principled stand allows the United States to defend its interests without embroiling itself in the murky sovereignty claims at the heart of the South China Sea dispute. Michael Green, Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair; Dr. Zack Cooper, Fellow, Japan Chair; Bonnie Glaser, Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project; Andrew Shearer, Senior Adviser on Asia-Pacific Security; and Greg Poling, Director Asia Maritime Transparency Initiativeto provide the analytical context and some fundamental principles that should guide strategic thinking on South China Sea policy. It is the geostrategic importance that is usually the main reason for the parties to strengthen their claim over the Spratlys and the Paracels. For example, targeted sanctions on Chinese companies involved in destabilizing activities could be considered. Coral reefs, which are vital to marine habitats, have been declining by 16 percent per decade, according to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In addition to fishing grounds, the South China Sea contains an abundance of energy resources, . The strategically important South China Sea is an increasingly prominent stage for the spiraling tensions . In particular, Chinas growing assertiveness over sovereignty and maritime rights in the South China Sea could be assessed as a serious challenge to the status quo in the region. More importantly, it also covers the most crucial energy routes for East Asian countries to transport oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. More than half of the worlds fishing vessels are in the South China Sea, and millions of people depend on these waters for their food and livelihoods. The South China Sea is one of the most important trade pathways in the world. the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States." Chinese control of the SCS-and, more generally, Chinese domination of China's near-seas region, meaning the SCS, the East China Sea (ECS), and the Yellow Sea-could substantially aect U.S. strategic, political, and economic interests in the Indo-Pacic region and . In my mind, this leads to 3 key questions to base any form of analysis from: In order to understand the contention of the South China Sea and its significance, it is firstly imperative to understand the geopolitical importance of Asia, which has given rise to Chinese pre-eminence; enabling its rise to contemporary major political power on the global stage. All Rights Reserved. Japan and South Korea will face a perilous new reality with China in control of the seaborne lifeline of both countries. This button displays the currently selected search type. The area includes several hundred small islands, rocks, and reefs, with the majority located in the Paracel and Spratly Island chains. The growing size and capability of the Chinese air force, navy, and coast guard allow Beijing to consistently monitor and exercise de facto control over most of the South China Sea. In . Narendra Modis Act East policy has resulted in an acceleration of burgeoning India-ASEAN ties and Indias position on the South China Sea territorial disputes essentially mirrors that of the United States. Washington, DC 20036. Strategic. Without the southern American presence, Chinese forces could more easily divide American forces east and west in the event of a crisis, more easily defend territorial claims or intimidate Malaysia and Indonesia, and more easily threaten maritime and air traffic crisscrossing the South China Sea. Beijing has also been careful to avoid estranging Aung San Suu Kyi and adopted a largely pragmatic approach to the countrys transition away from authoritarian rule. Beyond that, there are a variety of formal security cooperation agreements with Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Current developments in the South China Sea must be understood against the backdrop of recent history. Thus, it is said that the South China Sea could be the battleground of World War III. Whomever is elected to be the next American president, that person would be wise to have in place a Plan B should the TPP fail to pass the Senate this year (such a Plan B is admittedly unlikely, given that both major candidates would bear responsibility for its failure in the first place). The United States sent a carrier battle group there as well. or join us on Facebook. . It is unlikely that any states in the region possess the wealth and power to oppose this, although there is always a realistic possibility that they may receive backing from the USA if it is in their interests. Allied efforts to support U.S. force posture in the region will remain vital, but the United States should also expect allies to make greater contributions in responding to Chinese coercion. Its strategic economic importance and its geographic location at the confluence of several spheres of influence have rendered it one of the "world's hotspots". The United States should continue to prioritize military presence in the Asia-Pacific at the same time as it invests in key capabilities, such as long-range precision strike, undersea warfare, cyber/space systems, and other capabilities that will preserve the U.S. ability to deter Chinese aggression. From busiest . 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This article aims to highlight security dynamics of the US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific associated with the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea through the prism of Balance of Threat Th. Not taking a position on sovereignty allows the United States to flexibly intervene in the South China Sea to defend its interests and international rules and norms, while undercutting Chinese attempts to paint U.S. actions as a threat to Beijings sovereignty. The South China Sea is one of the most important economic and environmental regions in the world. Russian long-range aviation, despite performing frequent combat missions against Ukraine, is also conducting Pacific patrols, sometimes together with Chinese H-6K strategic bombers (Nikkei Asia, November 30). If China succeeds, in displacing U.S. power in the Western Pacific and Chinese territorial expansion into the South China Sea becomes permanent and codified, global geopolitics will have entered a new and very different era. How that competition will evolve remains to be seen, but the very fact of the contest should be understood as a reversal of fortune for China. And thus a new strategic map of Asia begins to emerge. The USSJohn C. Stennistied up there for a few days in April. The South China Sea (SCS) consists of over 200 tiny islands, reefs, shoals, atolls and sandbanks grouped in to 3 archipelagos the Spratlys, the Paracels and the Pratas Macclesfield Bank and Scarborough Shoal. This has continued in to the present day. Importance of South China Sea The South China Sea is a busy international waterway, one of the main arteries of global trade worth more than $5 trillion and is growing year on year. Read more, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NWWashington, DC 20004-3027, 2023 The Wilson Center. Even then, the countrys division between royalists and red-shirts will likely endure. "First, South China Sea is important for the strategic patrol of Chinese SSBN [nuclear ballistic missile submarine], which needs to enter west Pacific Ocean for its nuclear deterrence against the US," he explained. India has proactively engaged in the South China Sea (SCS), notably via boosting its naval presence and forging ties with Vietnam despite China's aggression. Geopolitical platform, analysis of political, military, security, economic, social events with international and geopolitics relevance. American littoral combat ships are rotating through Singapore, at the South China Seas western extremis, and the city-state has also quietly built the only Asian port outside of Yokohama at which an American aircraft carrier can dock. The strategic importance of the South China Sea cannot be overstated. Giving ground on vital interests in Asia will not encourage greater cooperation on global issues. She also observed that the sea-lanes through the South China Sea constituted a global commons not subject to sovereign claims by any nation. The South China Sea is one such essential waterway, made more important by the value of the sea's fisheries and subsea resources such as natural gas. But in order to achieve renewed stability in the regionto ensure that Southeast Asians are not susceptible to non-military Chinese coercionthe United States must strive to become more than just the security partner of choice. It can receive large aircraft (including C-17s and C-130s); it is close to a deep seaport; and it has infrastructure capable of handling command and control systems. It threatens the sovereignty of many nations and endangers the prosperity of the world. China tries to control the waters by using fishing vessels that are part of the Chinese maritime militia, coast guard ships, and naval vessels to harass other countries boats and deny access to this key area. Chinese missiles on the mainland already hold all U.S. Asian bases at risk. Accordingly, Malaysia's note verbale serves as the strongest stance of Malaysia on the SCS in recent times and aligns itself with the top priority of its DWP. In other words, his primary concern is that the rivalry over the South China Sea could derail Beijing's strong strategic focus on the Taiwan issue.25 Academic perspectives on the South China Sea are important and may actually be quite influential. That line was given little credence or attention in the U.S. or in Asia over the first five decades of the PRCs history. Now, the two militaries will increasingly exercise and train across a broad spectrum of military operations, from the low end to the high. Importantly, the countries of maritime Southeast Asia are not aligning only with the United States, but with a grouping of external states concerned with the nature of Chinas rise. This article examines Chinas behaviour in the South China Sea disputes through the lens of its strategy for managing its claims. Marcos Jr. had previously said his country would pursue oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea even without a deal with China, which claims almost all of the 1.3 million square mile South . This geo strategic significance is the main reason behind the fact that China and other territorial stakeholders are contesting to gain control of these maritime lane. If China can exert complete control over the region, using predominantly the maritime domain, it can build a significant strategic sphere of influence and power. The strategic importance of the SCS is mainly due to its geographical location, as the area is one of the worlds busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. In 1974, Chinese gunboats attacked and defeated a small South Vietnamese military outpost in the Paracels an archipelago of reefs, atolls, and islets in the South China Sea. From a strategic perspective, the geographical significance of the SCS is that whoever has dominance over it, dominates the future of East Asia. Yet, due to Turkey's strategic importance, the US cannot afford to affront Mr. Erdogan, who carries a peculiar . Chinas island outposts will increase this advantage as Chinese aircraft, ships, and paramilitary vessels will be able to rest and resupply in the southern portion of the South China Sea. The South China Sea (SCS) has great strategic and economic significance in the contemporary international politico-security environment. In order to understand the contention of the South China Sea and its significance, it is firstly imperative to understand the geopolitical importance of Asia, which has given rise to Chinese pre-eminence; enabling its rise to contemporary major political power on the global stage. Currently, President Xi Jinping makes frequent references to Chinas possession of the South China Sea since ancient times an assertion that lacks any validity historically or legally. The Strategic Importance of the South China Sea (With reference to the geopolitical, economic, and military aspects) South China Sea is known as one of the most significant and dangerous cluster of Islands in the contemporary world. In May, Australia and Singapore agreed to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. In the defense realm, the CSP paves the way for more bilateral military exercises, greater Singaporean access to Australian training facilities, enhanced intelligence-sharing arrangements and expanded people-to-people exchanges. The new administration should issue clear and consistent strategic messages, since inconsistent articulation of the objectives of the rebalance strategy has caused confusion in China and amongst U.S. allies and partners. Few in Washington were inclined to see the South China Sea as a strategic priority engaging vital U.S. national interests. In the contemporary era, Taiwan remains geographically at the intersection of most of East Asia's danger points. It has increased its military budget by over 8.5% in recent years and this is likely to continue for the near future. - Interview with Mei Gechlik, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan Spiking Tensions Between the U.S. and China: an interview with Andrew K.P. No other state in the region can match this increase in projection and rival China due to the economic differences. To counter Chinas efforts to control the South China Sea, the United States needs a sustainable strategy to bolster its own capabilities, work more effectively with capable allies and partners, and strengthen the regional order. The Obama administrations decision to lift the decades-old arms embargo on Vietnam is instrumental here. The end of the Cold War found East Asia and the Western Pacific strategically quiescent. European access to Asia will be through Beijing. A third of the world's shipping passes through it, its fisheries are critical sources of food for millions of people. While consistency in U.S. messaging and policy execution is important, it should be balanced by carefully calculated unpredictability in operations and tactics to prevent Beijing from becoming overly confident in its ability to anticipate U.S. reactions. However, there were a number of reasons to conclude that the line was no cartographic anomaly; it was an official indication of Beijings contention that the sovereign territory of China included the South China Sea. Miguel . The second will analyze the strategic landscape in and around the South China Sea. The strategic signal of an Indian presence in the South China Sea Harsh V. Pant India has wider stakes in South China Sea as nearly 55% of India's trade with the Indo-Pacific region passes through these waters.